Donald Trump still lacks the courage or will to change the Iranian regime.
A month after the United States began its attacks against Iran, it can be concluded that instability in the Middle East remains the same as it was on October 7, 2023. In other words, there has been no progress towards peace nor any territorial changes that would create further problems. The only significant event was the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
The Americans maintained their strategy of bombing Iranian military, energy, and nuclear facilities without deploying troops on the ground. Therefore, they are unlikely to attempt to change the regime, which has never weakened internally, despite the deaths of several important members. In this way, Tehran may make some relevant concessions, particularly regarding the uranium enrichment program and the fight against Israel, but the idea that has persisted for 47 years will not be replaced.
Since last year, Donald Trump has maintained the same method of pressuring the regime. While negotiating, Iran uses military means to gain something more for the United States, but also taking into account the security of Israel. In these thirty days, it has already managed to turn other countries in the region against Iran. However, they still need to recognize the existence of the Israeli state, which should happen after the end of the conflict.
It cannot be said that the military actions were useless because they further isolated the only country that promotes insecurity, conflict, and terrorism throughout the region. However, an inability to replicate the objective of the invasion of Iraq at the beginning of the century was noted. The problem may also be related to a lack of courage or willingness to install a regime that does not have popular support, even if the only solution is a return to monarchy.
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From where I sit, Mueller's testimony changes nothing. As matters stand now, each side claims victory on the merits. The only "contradiction" from the Mueller report is its holding back from announcing that Trump did obstruct justice and would have been indicted for it were he not a sitting President. This was imposed upon Mueller by Trump's minion, Attorney General Barr.
Trump personally welcomed and invited Russian interference in the election, and was glad of it. Then he lied about it and instructed people to lie about it for him.
Q: Trump and his campaign welcomed & encouraged Russian interference?
A: Yes.
Q: And then Trump and his campaign lied about it to cover it up?
A: Yes.
I don't see much of a contradiction there. It contradicts Trump's insistence that there was "no collusion," but "collusion" isn't the standard. Soliciting or accepting something of value from a non-U.S. source is the standard.
More important is the efforts of Trump and his minions to cover up the truth, both before and after Trump took office. Firing James Comey was only the most glaring of the many incidents of Trump's direction and control of efforts to prevent and obstruct investigation.
Nevertheless, impeachment was always unlikely to happen, as Pelosi has made it clear that she prefers to see Trump defeated at the ballot box in the 2020 elections. Perhaps she is right -- those who like Trump ignore the evidence that Trump has broken the law and enjoy that he defies expectations for mature behavior from the President; meanwhile, those who dislike Trump do not need to hear the evidence again. Both groups are relatively small compared to the voting population as a whole, which does not follow politics with any real care or attention and tend to vote for their own party regardless of who the candidate is.
Will Trump be re-elected in 2020? That remains to be see. The election is still fifteen months away, and much can happen between then and now. The opening of a war with Iran would be immensely unpopular; the U.S. has been at war since 2001 and is weary of it. The economy has been expanding non-stop since 2009 and it is in the nature of economics that expansions cycle inevitably with recessions. Democrats have reason to hope that Trump will simply lose in 2020. They also have reason to fear that Trump will win, simply because being the incumbent gives him many advantages and he seems to have a core of support based strictly on his cult of personality.
Right now it appears the outcome of the election will come down to five states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. What will make the difference there is a combination of the on-the-ground competency of both parties in the areas of registration and turnout; whether economic trends are improving or declining in late October and early November 2020; and whatever new issues face the U.S. a year from now.
The end result is: it's far too early to tell, and based on what we can know right now, it's too close to call.
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