The United States will not allow Putin to continue attacking Ukraine
In his first week as the 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump has already made numerous changes, especially at the domestic level, through more than two hundred executive orders. However, foreign policy was not forgotten with the announcement of the withdrawals from the Paris Agreement and the World Health Organization.
External rivals have not been forgotten either, although no decision has been implemented because US strength has been waning. The new tenant in the White House chose to attack Vladimir Putin instead of Xi Jinping, namely because of the war in Ukraine.
Washington's threat of sanctions against Moscow is not new, given Joe Biden's stance over the past four years. The rivalry between the two countries is something the world knows about, but Donald Trump has always shown a willingness to listen to the Kremlin leader's explanations. However, it seems that the desire to understand the reasons for the Russian invasion of its neighbor is beginning to cool.
It is true that there will have to be a bilateral meeting between the United States and Russia, as will happen between Trump and Xi Jinping, but there will hardly be a change in positions regarding the Ukrainian issue. In other words, some want an end to the conflict, while others want to maintain it or even cause more damage.
Given this, the Americans will have to continue applying sanctions and perhaps continue to use NATO and its allies' military equipment to pressure the old enemy that will always represent a threat to security.
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From where I sit, Mueller's testimony changes nothing. As matters stand now, each side claims victory on the merits. The only "contradiction" from the Mueller report is its holding back from announcing that Trump did obstruct justice and would have been indicted for it were he not a sitting President. This was imposed upon Mueller by Trump's minion, Attorney General Barr.
Trump personally welcomed and invited Russian interference in the election, and was glad of it. Then he lied about it and instructed people to lie about it for him.
Q: Trump and his campaign welcomed & encouraged Russian interference?
A: Yes.
Q: And then Trump and his campaign lied about it to cover it up?
A: Yes.
I don't see much of a contradiction there. It contradicts Trump's insistence that there was "no collusion," but "collusion" isn't the standard. Soliciting or accepting something of value from a non-U.S. source is the standard.
More important is the efforts of Trump and his minions to cover up the truth, both before and after Trump took office. Firing James Comey was only the most glaring of the many incidents of Trump's direction and control of efforts to prevent and obstruct investigation.
Nevertheless, impeachment was always unlikely to happen, as Pelosi has made it clear that she prefers to see Trump defeated at the ballot box in the 2020 elections. Perhaps she is right -- those who like Trump ignore the evidence that Trump has broken the law and enjoy that he defies expectations for mature behavior from the President; meanwhile, those who dislike Trump do not need to hear the evidence again. Both groups are relatively small compared to the voting population as a whole, which does not follow politics with any real care or attention and tend to vote for their own party regardless of who the candidate is.
Will Trump be re-elected in 2020? That remains to be see. The election is still fifteen months away, and much can happen between then and now. The opening of a war with Iran would be immensely unpopular; the U.S. has been at war since 2001 and is weary of it. The economy has been expanding non-stop since 2009 and it is in the nature of economics that expansions cycle inevitably with recessions. Democrats have reason to hope that Trump will simply lose in 2020. They also have reason to fear that Trump will win, simply because being the incumbent gives him many advantages and he seems to have a core of support based strictly on his cult of personality.
Right now it appears the outcome of the election will come down to five states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. What will make the difference there is a combination of the on-the-ground competency of both parties in the areas of registration and turnout; whether economic trends are improving or declining in late October and early November 2020; and whatever new issues face the U.S. a year from now.
The end result is: it's far too early to tell, and based on what we can know right now, it's too close to call.
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