The best way to avoid a bloodbath in Venezuela is to let people choose the future. The sudden appearance of Guaidó as the liberator of the current dictatorship is related to an eventual will of the Americans in changing the regime. For its part, Moscow and Beijing remain interested in keeping Maduro in power.
The conflict of international interests in the country will lead to a civil war that may culminate in a situation similar to that of Ukraine.
Outward interventions are leading the country to a long and painful path that ends in a civil war. In this field, Russian officials were more sensible than the Americans because they warned of the need for Venezuelans to take care of national interests.
The speech of the self-proclaimed Acting President sounds a lot to someone who has very strong support, not from the Armed Forces nor from any regional ally. Guaidó will be seen as the hero who tried to establish democracy, but the popular courage is not the same, reason why, does not have the capacity to convince the people to fight against the regime.
It is not easy to predict what will happen in a divided society. It was thought that the defenders of freedom were at an advantage, which tends to lead to the regime's downfall. However, there is a large population that continues to support the current President.
The task of Guaidó is quite complicated because it only relies on foreign aid, and the current political strength of the European Union has diminished and the United States is not superior to Russia and China in the military.
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