Another victory for Joe Biden
The nomination of Joe Biden as the Democratic candidate in the US presidential election seems to be a certainty considering the results of the past few weeks. Mathematics can put the former Vice President in the position of winner at the end of the month.
The joementum started in late February in South Carolina and peaked on Super Tuesday. The Michigan triumph was again instrumental in increasing the advantage.
Biden's best political qualities are becoming increasingly visible, although there are not many differences from Barack Obama's mandate. However, the choice of voters will be between a President who respects democratic norms and another who wants to control the system.
Sanders' continuity in the race benefits the party's internal discussion. Democrats have had no leadership in recent years, especially after Hillary Clinton's poor performance in 2016, so the best way to discover the new face is to debate ideas, if only for another month.
The fight against coronavirus can be an excellent starting point for Joe Biden to initiate the attack on the administration led by Donald Trump. In this respect, there must also be a positive difference from the aggressive campaign by the Republicans.
The joementum started in late February in South Carolina and peaked on Super Tuesday. The Michigan triumph was again instrumental in increasing the advantage.
Biden's best political qualities are becoming increasingly visible, although there are not many differences from Barack Obama's mandate. However, the choice of voters will be between a President who respects democratic norms and another who wants to control the system.
Sanders' continuity in the race benefits the party's internal discussion. Democrats have had no leadership in recent years, especially after Hillary Clinton's poor performance in 2016, so the best way to discover the new face is to debate ideas, if only for another month.
The fight against coronavirus can be an excellent starting point for Joe Biden to initiate the attack on the administration led by Donald Trump. In this respect, there must also be a positive difference from the aggressive campaign by the Republicans.
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From where I sit, Mueller's testimony changes nothing. As matters stand now, each side claims victory on the merits. The only "contradiction" from the Mueller report is its holding back from announcing that Trump did obstruct justice and would have been indicted for it were he not a sitting President. This was imposed upon Mueller by Trump's minion, Attorney General Barr.
Trump personally welcomed and invited Russian interference in the election, and was glad of it. Then he lied about it and instructed people to lie about it for him.
Q: Trump and his campaign welcomed & encouraged Russian interference?
A: Yes.
Q: And then Trump and his campaign lied about it to cover it up?
A: Yes.
I don't see much of a contradiction there. It contradicts Trump's insistence that there was "no collusion," but "collusion" isn't the standard. Soliciting or accepting something of value from a non-U.S. source is the standard.
More important is the efforts of Trump and his minions to cover up the truth, both before and after Trump took office. Firing James Comey was only the most glaring of the many incidents of Trump's direction and control of efforts to prevent and obstruct investigation.
Nevertheless, impeachment was always unlikely to happen, as Pelosi has made it clear that she prefers to see Trump defeated at the ballot box in the 2020 elections. Perhaps she is right -- those who like Trump ignore the evidence that Trump has broken the law and enjoy that he defies expectations for mature behavior from the President; meanwhile, those who dislike Trump do not need to hear the evidence again. Both groups are relatively small compared to the voting population as a whole, which does not follow politics with any real care or attention and tend to vote for their own party regardless of who the candidate is.
Will Trump be re-elected in 2020? That remains to be see. The election is still fifteen months away, and much can happen between then and now. The opening of a war with Iran would be immensely unpopular; the U.S. has been at war since 2001 and is weary of it. The economy has been expanding non-stop since 2009 and it is in the nature of economics that expansions cycle inevitably with recessions. Democrats have reason to hope that Trump will simply lose in 2020. They also have reason to fear that Trump will win, simply because being the incumbent gives him many advantages and he seems to have a core of support based strictly on his cult of personality.
Right now it appears the outcome of the election will come down to five states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. What will make the difference there is a combination of the on-the-ground competency of both parties in the areas of registration and turnout; whether economic trends are improving or declining in late October and early November 2020; and whatever new issues face the U.S. a year from now.
The end result is: it's far too early to tell, and based on what we can know right now, it's too close to call.
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