Volodymyr Zelensky lost US aid through his own fault
The disagreement between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office shows that the conflict between Ukraine and Russia will be difficult to resolve, even with the help of the most important countries in the West. The Ukrainians will never accept the cession of the occupied territories, but they have also realized that it will be difficult to recover them.
The West's position is to unconditionally support Ukraine, although with the promise of a decision regarding the future. It is not enough to prevent Russia from advancing to Kiev or beyond, but it will not be possible to maintain aid for much longer, especially if it is necessary to put troops on the ground.
The Ukrainian leader's stance has not been the best because he makes promises of an understanding but then continues to demand more help without obtaining results. In other words, without being able to recover the lost territory. Zelensky's intention is clear, but prolonging the conflict could cause problems internally.
The agreement signed with the United States should include more security measures or even the inclusion of military equipment during the period in which mineral exploration was carried out. However, everything was spoiled by the untimely reaction in the Oval Office, despite being provoked by Vice President JD Vance.
The attempt to stick to the Americans, even leaving aid from Europe in the background, was quite damaging for the Ukrainian Head of State, which generated a certain amount of distrust in many sectors of the Republican Party. Interference in domestic politics, due to the Democrats, also ended up complicating relations.
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From where I sit, Mueller's testimony changes nothing. As matters stand now, each side claims victory on the merits. The only "contradiction" from the Mueller report is its holding back from announcing that Trump did obstruct justice and would have been indicted for it were he not a sitting President. This was imposed upon Mueller by Trump's minion, Attorney General Barr.
Trump personally welcomed and invited Russian interference in the election, and was glad of it. Then he lied about it and instructed people to lie about it for him.
Q: Trump and his campaign welcomed & encouraged Russian interference?
A: Yes.
Q: And then Trump and his campaign lied about it to cover it up?
A: Yes.
I don't see much of a contradiction there. It contradicts Trump's insistence that there was "no collusion," but "collusion" isn't the standard. Soliciting or accepting something of value from a non-U.S. source is the standard.
More important is the efforts of Trump and his minions to cover up the truth, both before and after Trump took office. Firing James Comey was only the most glaring of the many incidents of Trump's direction and control of efforts to prevent and obstruct investigation.
Nevertheless, impeachment was always unlikely to happen, as Pelosi has made it clear that she prefers to see Trump defeated at the ballot box in the 2020 elections. Perhaps she is right -- those who like Trump ignore the evidence that Trump has broken the law and enjoy that he defies expectations for mature behavior from the President; meanwhile, those who dislike Trump do not need to hear the evidence again. Both groups are relatively small compared to the voting population as a whole, which does not follow politics with any real care or attention and tend to vote for their own party regardless of who the candidate is.
Will Trump be re-elected in 2020? That remains to be see. The election is still fifteen months away, and much can happen between then and now. The opening of a war with Iran would be immensely unpopular; the U.S. has been at war since 2001 and is weary of it. The economy has been expanding non-stop since 2009 and it is in the nature of economics that expansions cycle inevitably with recessions. Democrats have reason to hope that Trump will simply lose in 2020. They also have reason to fear that Trump will win, simply because being the incumbent gives him many advantages and he seems to have a core of support based strictly on his cult of personality.
Right now it appears the outcome of the election will come down to five states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. What will make the difference there is a combination of the on-the-ground competency of both parties in the areas of registration and turnout; whether economic trends are improving or declining in late October and early November 2020; and whatever new issues face the U.S. a year from now.
The end result is: it's far too early to tell, and based on what we can know right now, it's too close to call.
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