Donald Trump had enough domestic victories to complete the term
A year after Donald Trump's second election as President of the United States, his performance can be considered positive, despite his popularity not being the best. However, this time he will not be re-elected.
Domestic changes were the priority of the new administration, namely, ending the "wokism" that marked the Joe Biden administration. The country turned completely to the right overnight, but some believe that only normality in the functioning of the government has been restored.
Fears that a path towards totalitarianism would be defined, especially with the end of press freedom, did not materialize, nor did the attempt to control Congress, despite the Republicans having a majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate. The measures he implemented do not risk impeachment if the Democrats win the midterm elections within a year.
On the foreign front, there were great achievements of this administration, especially the various peace agreements that were signed. Cambodia and Thailand have not resumed hostilities, Armenia and Azerbaijan sat down at the table much later, and India and Pakistan are now able to speak with each other.
Despite these victories, the White House has still not managed to find a balanced solution to the problem between Israel and Palestine without having to support one side. However, there are some signs that the United States is willing to support a two-state solution. The biggest problem for Trump will be convincing Russia to end the war against Ukraine. His old friend Vladimir Putin is also unwilling to demonstrate military and political strength in front of the Americans.
1 comentário:
From where I sit, Mueller's testimony changes nothing. As matters stand now, each side claims victory on the merits. The only "contradiction" from the Mueller report is its holding back from announcing that Trump did obstruct justice and would have been indicted for it were he not a sitting President. This was imposed upon Mueller by Trump's minion, Attorney General Barr.
Trump personally welcomed and invited Russian interference in the election, and was glad of it. Then he lied about it and instructed people to lie about it for him.
Q: Trump and his campaign welcomed & encouraged Russian interference?
A: Yes.
Q: And then Trump and his campaign lied about it to cover it up?
A: Yes.
I don't see much of a contradiction there. It contradicts Trump's insistence that there was "no collusion," but "collusion" isn't the standard. Soliciting or accepting something of value from a non-U.S. source is the standard.
More important is the efforts of Trump and his minions to cover up the truth, both before and after Trump took office. Firing James Comey was only the most glaring of the many incidents of Trump's direction and control of efforts to prevent and obstruct investigation.
Nevertheless, impeachment was always unlikely to happen, as Pelosi has made it clear that she prefers to see Trump defeated at the ballot box in the 2020 elections. Perhaps she is right -- those who like Trump ignore the evidence that Trump has broken the law and enjoy that he defies expectations for mature behavior from the President; meanwhile, those who dislike Trump do not need to hear the evidence again. Both groups are relatively small compared to the voting population as a whole, which does not follow politics with any real care or attention and tend to vote for their own party regardless of who the candidate is.
Will Trump be re-elected in 2020? That remains to be see. The election is still fifteen months away, and much can happen between then and now. The opening of a war with Iran would be immensely unpopular; the U.S. has been at war since 2001 and is weary of it. The economy has been expanding non-stop since 2009 and it is in the nature of economics that expansions cycle inevitably with recessions. Democrats have reason to hope that Trump will simply lose in 2020. They also have reason to fear that Trump will win, simply because being the incumbent gives him many advantages and he seems to have a core of support based strictly on his cult of personality.
Right now it appears the outcome of the election will come down to five states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. What will make the difference there is a combination of the on-the-ground competency of both parties in the areas of registration and turnout; whether economic trends are improving or declining in late October and early November 2020; and whatever new issues face the U.S. a year from now.
The end result is: it's far too early to tell, and based on what we can know right now, it's too close to call.
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