Spanish Right-Wing will change after the elections in Madrid
The regional elections in Madrid are a good opportunity for the PP to regain political strength in national terms. However, Pablo Casado's mission will be more difficult than that of Isabel Ayuso, who only needed to create a political crisis to strengthen power.
The electoral cycle of the popular in the last autonomous electoral acts was not positive, despite the victory in Galicia. The problem has not been only with the PP because the Spanish Right has only risen due to VOX. The fall of Ciudadanos has to be considered as a negative aspect in the attempt to change in the neighboring country.
It will not be the results in Madrid that will define the future politicians of the leader of the PP and Inés Arrimadas, nor even the announced end of the Ciudadanos. The next general elections will be important to understand the configuration of the Right of Spanish politics until 2030, and the main objective is to convince the electorate that they can trust the opposition. The ambition to come to power is legitimate, but it will hardly happen in this context of uncertainty.
VOX has the capacity to grow, but it will never reach an absolute majority to govern alone, and it will also not be the most voted party, not even in the Right. The PP can win the elections, although full control of Parliament, so it needs partners. Finally, Ciudadanos are in danger of disappearing or becoming a party of regional expression, which leads to the departure of militants to create other political forces.
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From where I sit, Mueller's testimony changes nothing. As matters stand now, each side claims victory on the merits. The only "contradiction" from the Mueller report is its holding back from announcing that Trump did obstruct justice and would have been indicted for it were he not a sitting President. This was imposed upon Mueller by Trump's minion, Attorney General Barr.
Trump personally welcomed and invited Russian interference in the election, and was glad of it. Then he lied about it and instructed people to lie about it for him.
Q: Trump and his campaign welcomed & encouraged Russian interference?
A: Yes.
Q: And then Trump and his campaign lied about it to cover it up?
A: Yes.
I don't see much of a contradiction there. It contradicts Trump's insistence that there was "no collusion," but "collusion" isn't the standard. Soliciting or accepting something of value from a non-U.S. source is the standard.
More important is the efforts of Trump and his minions to cover up the truth, both before and after Trump took office. Firing James Comey was only the most glaring of the many incidents of Trump's direction and control of efforts to prevent and obstruct investigation.
Nevertheless, impeachment was always unlikely to happen, as Pelosi has made it clear that she prefers to see Trump defeated at the ballot box in the 2020 elections. Perhaps she is right -- those who like Trump ignore the evidence that Trump has broken the law and enjoy that he defies expectations for mature behavior from the President; meanwhile, those who dislike Trump do not need to hear the evidence again. Both groups are relatively small compared to the voting population as a whole, which does not follow politics with any real care or attention and tend to vote for their own party regardless of who the candidate is.
Will Trump be re-elected in 2020? That remains to be see. The election is still fifteen months away, and much can happen between then and now. The opening of a war with Iran would be immensely unpopular; the U.S. has been at war since 2001 and is weary of it. The economy has been expanding non-stop since 2009 and it is in the nature of economics that expansions cycle inevitably with recessions. Democrats have reason to hope that Trump will simply lose in 2020. They also have reason to fear that Trump will win, simply because being the incumbent gives him many advantages and he seems to have a core of support based strictly on his cult of personality.
Right now it appears the outcome of the election will come down to five states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. What will make the difference there is a combination of the on-the-ground competency of both parties in the areas of registration and turnout; whether economic trends are improving or declining in late October and early November 2020; and whatever new issues face the U.S. a year from now.
The end result is: it's far too early to tell, and based on what we can know right now, it's too close to call.
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