The United States Has Few Options to Attack Iran
The second US military intervention against Iran in less than a year may be imminent following statements by President Donald Trump, who leaves only two options open. Either an agreement is reached or there will be more attacks against Tehran.
There are no other ways to resolve the conflict. That is, Ayatollah Khamenei doesn't have many choices, especially if he continues to refuse a US proposal. He may have an advantage in defending his own territory because more bombings against nuclear facilities do not cause instability, but there will continue to be pressure from Washington for some time.
A ground invasion, as happened in Iraq, only makes sense if the objective of the current US administration is regime change. However, the issue was not included in the guidelines after the meeting that took place in Geneva this week. I don't believe there is the capacity to capture the Iranian spiritual leader, as happened with Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela. The last option is to carry out air strikes against civilian targets, which would lead to the regime's surrender.
The desire to force Iran to sign a nuclear agreement through the use of force seems complicated to achieve unless there are other intentions, such as replacing the country's leadership, but this would cause some international condemnation, especially after what happened in Venezuela and the deaths of soldiers that would never be forgiven by those who intend to end unnecessary conflicts with no end in sight.
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From where I sit, Mueller's testimony changes nothing. As matters stand now, each side claims victory on the merits. The only "contradiction" from the Mueller report is its holding back from announcing that Trump did obstruct justice and would have been indicted for it were he not a sitting President. This was imposed upon Mueller by Trump's minion, Attorney General Barr.
Trump personally welcomed and invited Russian interference in the election, and was glad of it. Then he lied about it and instructed people to lie about it for him.
Q: Trump and his campaign welcomed & encouraged Russian interference?
A: Yes.
Q: And then Trump and his campaign lied about it to cover it up?
A: Yes.
I don't see much of a contradiction there. It contradicts Trump's insistence that there was "no collusion," but "collusion" isn't the standard. Soliciting or accepting something of value from a non-U.S. source is the standard.
More important is the efforts of Trump and his minions to cover up the truth, both before and after Trump took office. Firing James Comey was only the most glaring of the many incidents of Trump's direction and control of efforts to prevent and obstruct investigation.
Nevertheless, impeachment was always unlikely to happen, as Pelosi has made it clear that she prefers to see Trump defeated at the ballot box in the 2020 elections. Perhaps she is right -- those who like Trump ignore the evidence that Trump has broken the law and enjoy that he defies expectations for mature behavior from the President; meanwhile, those who dislike Trump do not need to hear the evidence again. Both groups are relatively small compared to the voting population as a whole, which does not follow politics with any real care or attention and tend to vote for their own party regardless of who the candidate is.
Will Trump be re-elected in 2020? That remains to be see. The election is still fifteen months away, and much can happen between then and now. The opening of a war with Iran would be immensely unpopular; the U.S. has been at war since 2001 and is weary of it. The economy has been expanding non-stop since 2009 and it is in the nature of economics that expansions cycle inevitably with recessions. Democrats have reason to hope that Trump will simply lose in 2020. They also have reason to fear that Trump will win, simply because being the incumbent gives him many advantages and he seems to have a core of support based strictly on his cult of personality.
Right now it appears the outcome of the election will come down to five states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. What will make the difference there is a combination of the on-the-ground competency of both parties in the areas of registration and turnout; whether economic trends are improving or declining in late October and early November 2020; and whatever new issues face the U.S. a year from now.
The end result is: it's far too early to tell, and based on what we can know right now, it's too close to call.
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