The United States intends to weaken Iran by destroying all its military equipment.
The United States has fulfilled its threats to attack Iran, although without using troops on the ground. The first phase of Operation "Epic Fury" aims to destroy Iranian military equipment, especially nuclear weapons that may already be developed.
During the last week, there has been much talk of aerial bombardments to prevent a response from the enemy in the same way. That is, the main objective is to prevent Tehran from having the capacity to carry out the same type of attacks. However, there have been some retaliations, notably against neighboring countries, which have caused considerable damage. So far, 12 countries have suffered damage due to Iranian missiles and drones.
The death of Ayatollah Khamenei ends up being the most important event since the beginning of the joint offensive by the United States and Israel, but the regime remains strong because a replacement is already being considered. The Revolutionary Guards are also intact, so it is difficult to speak of a major victory. However, regime change is not a priority for Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, who prefer to see the enemy weakened to the point of being unable to recover militarily.
A ground action, like the one in Iraq, would have very significant costs for the US administration, but also for the Israeli leadership. The death of many soldiers would not be well received in Washington and Tel Aviv, despite the growing anti-Iranian sentiment in the Middle East.
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From where I sit, Mueller's testimony changes nothing. As matters stand now, each side claims victory on the merits. The only "contradiction" from the Mueller report is its holding back from announcing that Trump did obstruct justice and would have been indicted for it were he not a sitting President. This was imposed upon Mueller by Trump's minion, Attorney General Barr.
Trump personally welcomed and invited Russian interference in the election, and was glad of it. Then he lied about it and instructed people to lie about it for him.
Q: Trump and his campaign welcomed & encouraged Russian interference?
A: Yes.
Q: And then Trump and his campaign lied about it to cover it up?
A: Yes.
I don't see much of a contradiction there. It contradicts Trump's insistence that there was "no collusion," but "collusion" isn't the standard. Soliciting or accepting something of value from a non-U.S. source is the standard.
More important is the efforts of Trump and his minions to cover up the truth, both before and after Trump took office. Firing James Comey was only the most glaring of the many incidents of Trump's direction and control of efforts to prevent and obstruct investigation.
Nevertheless, impeachment was always unlikely to happen, as Pelosi has made it clear that she prefers to see Trump defeated at the ballot box in the 2020 elections. Perhaps she is right -- those who like Trump ignore the evidence that Trump has broken the law and enjoy that he defies expectations for mature behavior from the President; meanwhile, those who dislike Trump do not need to hear the evidence again. Both groups are relatively small compared to the voting population as a whole, which does not follow politics with any real care or attention and tend to vote for their own party regardless of who the candidate is.
Will Trump be re-elected in 2020? That remains to be see. The election is still fifteen months away, and much can happen between then and now. The opening of a war with Iran would be immensely unpopular; the U.S. has been at war since 2001 and is weary of it. The economy has been expanding non-stop since 2009 and it is in the nature of economics that expansions cycle inevitably with recessions. Democrats have reason to hope that Trump will simply lose in 2020. They also have reason to fear that Trump will win, simply because being the incumbent gives him many advantages and he seems to have a core of support based strictly on his cult of personality.
Right now it appears the outcome of the election will come down to five states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. What will make the difference there is a combination of the on-the-ground competency of both parties in the areas of registration and turnout; whether economic trends are improving or declining in late October and early November 2020; and whatever new issues face the U.S. a year from now.
The end result is: it's far too early to tell, and based on what we can know right now, it's too close to call.
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